As we mentioned in our last analytics article, the work we've been doing on Roller Derby analytics is now sufficiently advanced that our predictions about last week's Division 1 Playoffs were just as good as those of Flat Track Stats. We think that this is probably good enough to start making a few public predictions - and where better than in this weekend's coming Division 1 Playoffs.
In particular, this playoffs is yet another history-making event, with Glasgow Roller Derby attending as the first ever Scottish league to reach Division 1, and only the second UK league after London Rollergirls! (Last week was similarly historic for Sweden, with Crime City Rollers and Stockholm Roller Derby both attending for the first time.)
The WFTDA prediction for this playoffs is: 1. London Rollergirls (#4) 2. Denver Roller Derby (#5) 3. Jacksonville RollerGirls (#9) 4. Atlanta Rollergirls (#13) 5. Tampa Roller Derby (#18) 6. Detroit Derby Girls (#21) 7. Glasgow Roller Derby (#26) 8. Steel City Roller Derby (#29) 9. Pikes Peak Derby Dames (#36) 10. Charlottesville Derby Dames (#38) corresponding to the seeding for the tournament itself (numbers in brackets are the WFTDA rank).
Both we and Flat Track Stats disagree with this prediction somewhat, and in generally the same areas. We tend to consider Steel City somewhat underranked, and Pikes Peak somewhat overranked, but differ as to precisely how much. Using score ratios, our prediction for the final standing is: 1. London Rollergirls 2. Denver Roller Derby 3. Jacksonville Roller Girls 4. Atlanta Rollergirls 5. Tampa Roller Derby 6. Detroit Derby Girls 7. Steel City Roller Derby 8. Glasgow Roller Derby 9. Charlottesville Derby Dames 10. Pikes Peak Derby Dames
and using score difference simply swaps the position of Glasgow and Charlottesville. In fact, by both metrics, the Glasgow / Charlottesville bout is predicted to be the closest bout of the entire tournament, with potentially less than 20 points between the two! This bout is on at 5pm Friday, UK time. You can watch it live on WFTDA.tv, or attend the Glasgow Roller Derby viewing party!
Flat Track Stats predicts (with its idea of the WFTDA rank in brackets): 1. London (#2) 2. Denver (#7) 3. Jacksonville (#8) 5. Atlanta (#16) 5. Tampa (#18) 6. Detroit (#20) 7. Steel City (#23) 8. Pikes Peak (#41) 9. Charlottesville (#43) 10. Glasgow (#50)
although it also agrees that the Glasgow/Charlottesville bout will be extremely close (giving Glasgow a 37% chance of winning)!