Predictions of bouts are from FTS, if possible, and from our own SRD Rank where FTS cannot make predictions (for example: Latin America, or non-MRDA men’s bouts). (SRDRank also has recent WFTDA rankings, including the 31st June ranking, as well as SRDRank, and allows you to make predictions from them.)
If we’ve missed you from our roundup, please let us know! [Or add yourselves to FTS and/or Derbylisting]
(Note: we're especially likely to be missing items this week, as Facebook's response to the Cambridge Analytica scandal has resulted in them turning off large parts of the services we use to automatically collate events for this article. We don't think we've missed too much, but...)Tournaments have always been a popular thing in Roller Derby, and as the community both grows and becomes more concerned with cost- and time-efficiency, this is only becoming more true. However, with a standard WFTDA-rules bout needing at least 90 minutes (and preferably 2 hours) blocked in for it, and around 14+ officials if fully-staffed, hosting large numbers of teams can be tricky, especially if you want a tournament structure capable of providing a "winner".
As a result, there's a huge number of alternative rules for shorter game formats, thus allowing more games per day, and more teams per tournament: from the 2 minute games of Sur5al, through 21 minute Derby Sevens [both with reduced rosters too], through various ad-hoc 30, 40 and 45 minute modifications of the rules.
Few of the above bout systems change much about the rules of the game beyond timing (and sometimes roster restrictions) - they all take the same number of officials as WFTDA standard games.
Waterford City Viqueens, Waterford's oldest Roller Derby league, wanted to promote Roller Derby in their city (and in Ireland) by hosting a 6 team tournament, with teams from across Eire and beyond. For a small league; in this case, just 25 members; hosting a 10 game tournament is challenging not just in terms of time, but also officiating resources. As Macks, for the Viqueens notes, "As Ireland is so small (in general, not just in derby land) securing officials was one of the toughest aspects of organising the tournament, we all know that without them...... THERE IS NO DERBY!"
This was also the Viqueens' first event on this scale, so they also had to work on solving all of the large tournament problems - food, water, changing rooms, scheduling and so on - for the first time.
To cope with these additional pressures, the league decided to make a more radical choice of ruleset: adopting the 2017 PivotStar Rules. To the best of our knowledge, Victory or Valhalla is the first tournament outside of North America where the PivotStar rules have been applied.
The executive summary of changes [and reasoning] might look something like:
The tournament itself, Victory or Valhalla, was organised as 2 group stages (of three teams each, unseeded), into placement bouts - a single 5th place bout for the lowest teams in each group, and a 4 team single elimination for the top 2 in each group. This gave every team a minimum of 3 games, and a maximum of 4 (for the finalists).
Belfast Roller Derby | 17 | : | 8 | Cork City Firebirds |
Brain Damage Angoulême | 11 | : | 9 | Waterford City Viqueens |
Limerick Roller Derby | 10 | : | 12 | Belfast Roller Derby |
East Coast Cyclones | 3 | : | 11 | Brain Damage Angoulême |
Cork City Firebirds | 8 | : | 14 | Limerick Roller Derby |
Waterford City Viqueens | 22 | : | 4 | East Coast Cyclones |
Cork City Firebirds | 14 | : | 4 | East Coast Cyclones |
Brain Damage Angoulême | 9 | : | 16 | Limerick Roller Derby |
Belfast Roller Derby | 11 | : | 10 | Waterford City Viqueens |
Brain Damage Angoulême | 8 | : | 18 | Belfast Roller Derby |
(Other than Belfast topping Limerick (due to Limerick forfeiting), this reproduces the FTS European rankings of the teams competing: these results are not in FTS as yet, as they're non-standard ruleset.)
Waterford City Viqueens performed a survey of attendees to measure just that, and have generously shared a summary of the results with us, on which we base this part of the article.
As with all surveys of a population, there are conflicting opinions, with some people praising aspects which others disliked (for example, the summary highlights responses complaining that 20 minute games were a little short, alongside several responses lauding the short games for allowing so many games to be packed into a single day tournament). On a purely qualitative measure, then, response to the PivotStar format might be considered mixed, as skaters mentioning it were either confused by the rules, or, conversely, found them simpler. (By contrast, officials only positively mentioned the rules being simpler + more predictable, with complaints more towards the reduction in the number of officials on track.)
On a more quantitative measure, though, the feeling is unambiguously positive. Given the chance to rate various aspects of the tournament on a 5 point scale, every single aspect received a mean and median rating between 5 and 4; and no aspect had any 0 ratings at all. Most promisingly, 100% of responding Skaters and Officials both found the tournament "worthwhile" and said that they would recommend it to others. The Viqueens pulled out a particularly positive quote from one (anonymous) respondent: "Seriously this was a fantastic event and should be a yearly thing. Like an Irish roller con: ye should be really proud of yourselves for pulling it off so well!"
Survey data collated by Waterford Viqueens, made available to us on request.
An interesting aspect emerging from the more detailed questions was the not inconsiderable number of officials interested in the tournament primarily because of the different ruleset. 22% of officials (compared to 11% of skaters) chose this as their reason, when only allowed to pick a single response. (The majority of skaters prized the ability to compete in multiple games as their reason, 73% of skaters saying so; officials were more split, with no really clear majority out of "location", "multiple games" and "rule set".)
For the Viqueens' part, the event was an overall success, both in terms of organisation: "The schedule was reliable and well kept to; we went over time a little before lunch, but the break allowed us to catch up", and in terms of the social effect; "The amount of derby teams was great: people got to meet different teams and play teams they hadn't played before [which] created a great sense of community".
The league, of course, pay tribute to all those necessary for the event to exist, noting that "The announcers were fantastic, [and] the Refs and NSOs did a great job and helped everything run super smoothly".
In fact, media seems to have been the only thing that could be improved, with a Tournament Group Photo one of the things that the league would like to ensure happens next time. (We'd also recommend a group photo for the officials, the announcers, and the volunteers, as well!)
We'd love to see more tests of the PivotStar Rules elsewhere (with the permission of PivotStar, of course - although we know Luludemon is personally excited to see people using the ruleset in general, it's always nice to ask); and we look forward to more tournaments from Waterford Viqueens in future!
With all the excitement at EuroClash, and some other interesting fixtures today, we're giving you a quick roundup of all the action that's happened so far....
Day 1 of EuroClash saw the following games played in Newcastle, England - * indicates an upset in terms of the lower-seeded team winning, ! indicates an exceptional performance, although the predicted team won:
TEAM 1 | TEAM 2 | RATIO | WFTDA Pred(relative strength) | SRDRank Pred |
Tiger Bay Brawlers: 370 | 55: Steel City Roller Derby | 6.73 (!) | 1.03 | 1.79 |
Newcastle Roller Girls: 149 | 168: Birmingham Blitz Dames | 0.89 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
Dublin Roller Derby: 199 | 222: Dock City Rollers | 0.90 (*) | 2.02 | 1.40 |
Birmingham Blitz Dames: 177 | 106: Steel City Roller Derby | 1.70 | 2.08 | 1.69 |
Newcastle Roller Girls: 115 | 161: Tiger Bay Brawlers | 0.71 | 1.45 | 0.73 |
The most striking deviation from prediction was the massive victory of Cardiff's Tiger Bay Brawlers over the US's Steel City Roller Derby in the first game of the tournament - smashing all predictions. Notably, both teams performed closer to expectations on their other games during the day.
The other upset of the day was an actual upset - and one of the more likely ones in the event, as Dock City Roller Derby narrowly toppled tournament favorites Dublin - breaking a long winning streak for the latter team, in the second period, after trailing by 40 points at the end of the first.
You can catch up with the equally exciting second day of EuroClash - including all of Auld Reekie Roller Girls, Central City Roller Derby and Middlesbrough Roller Derby's games - with the livestream, which will be linked from the EuroClash page, and WFTDA.tv.
Over in Spain, Brawlcelona sees Barcelona Roller Derby hosting Madrid, Münich and Prague for games, three of which happened today (we'll update the final score when we manage to acquire it):
TEAM 1 | TEAM 2 | RATIO | SRDRank Pred |
Prague City Roller Derby:45 | 401:Roller Derby Madrid | 0.11 | 0.30 |
Barcelona Roller Derby: 110 | 153: Roller Derby Madrid | 0.72 | 0.80 |
Prague City Roller Derby: 39 | 319: Münich Dynamite | 0.12 | 0.45 |
Note that Prague City are playing in this tournament with only a roster of 8, and played part of their second game, against Münich, with only 5! Considering this, their achieved scores are impressive indeed.
Sadly, there's no live stream for the Brawlcelona tournament as it continues tomorrow.
Finally, some updates from the Scottish Roller Derby fixtures:
Over in Glasgow, Glasgow Roller Derby hosted Dundee Roller Derby for a double-header, between both A and both B teams. The A team matchup has been something of a long-awaited contest.
SRDRank predicted a near draw for the B teams, and a 5:4 score ratio in Dundee's favour. As it happens, Dundee blew away expectations in both games, with a convincing victory away, especially for the travel team.
Maiden Grrders (Glasgow B) 170 : 207 Bonnie Colliders (Dundee B)
Irn Bruisers (Glasgow A) 144 : 373 Silvery Tayzers (Dundee A)
Down in London, ignoring any other international events happening in the area, Glasgow Men's Roller Derby played a pair of closed bouts against London's Southern Discomfort. SRDRank predicted a 10:1 victory for SoDisco A, and a 4:7 victory for SoDisco B, and the performance on the day met expectations.
Glasgow Men's Roller Derby 150 : 215 Mild Discomfort (Southern Discomfort B)Predictions of bouts are from FTS, if possible, and from our own SRD Rank where FTS cannot make predictions (for example: Latin America, or non-MRDA men’s bouts). (SRDRank also has recent WFTDA rankings, including the 31st June ranking, as well as SRDRank, and allows you to make predictions from them.)
If we’ve missed you from our roundup, please let us know! [Or add yourselves to FTS and/or Derbylisting]
(Note: we're especially likely to be missing items this week, as Facebook's response to the Cambridge Analytica scandal has resulted in them turning off large parts of the services we use to automatically collate events for this article. We don't think we've missed too much, but...)We've written once already about the return of the, now International, Roller Derby tournament to Newcastle Upon Tyne...
...but, with the publication of the official Schedule, and a lot of activity from many of the competing teams, we thought it was worth a quick update.
Firstly, to the schedule: the official schedule in UK time is below, but we've also prepared a fancy multi-time-zone version HERE for anyone expecting a livestream and wanting to follow their favourite team from abroad.
Also, since our first update, several of the teams competing have played at significant tournaments: Birmingham Blitz Dames playing exceptional derby at the K-Town Shakedown in Kalamazoo, Michigan, winning 2 out of 3 games, and only losing the last, against Royal City (Guelph) by 9 points (against a predicted loss of around 150!). We predicted that Birmingham might well be underranked in our last update, and this proves us very right... Similarly, a great performance by Dublin at Southern Discomfort 2018 in South Carolina, beating expectations in every single bout by huge margins - only losing one bout (against Ann Arbor) by 3 points (against a predicted loss of around 90), and winning every single other - has pushed their expected rating up significantly, although as they already top the expected teams at EuroClash, this doesn't really change our prediction for them.
Meanwhile, for Dock City Rollers and Newcastle Roller Girls over in Tri-City's Put Up Your Toques in Ontario, it was also a very good weekend. Dock City beat expectations against Winnipeg, and Newcastle both won, and beat expectations, against each of their opponents, giving both of them a substantial boost - but not enough for Dock City to gain on Dublin at the top of the table.
Steel City played a single game since our last update, against the Chicago Outfit, where they also out-performed expectations, by a good 50 points or so.
By comparison, Middlesbrough and Central City have had a relatively quiet time of it, with no further bouts since our last writeup. Central City will play one game, this weekend, as they take on London Rockin' Rollers up in Glasgow for British Champs Tier 1, where their current rating expects a 3:1 score ratio in victory! Nevertheless, games dropping out of consideration, and teams moving around them, have caused ranking changes in WFTDA for both teams.
Unfortunately, Auld Reekie's position is not affected by their own games played since our last update - their closed bouts away against Kallio and Bear City are not marked as Sanctioned on FTS, and so don't count towards their WFTDA ratings there. Whilst they lost a bit of rating compared to last time, their predicted performance seems to have now stabilised, so a rating including these games should be more accurate. Similarly, Tiger Bay Brawlers' bout against Rainy City B can't count towards WFTDA ratings, as only A teams can contribute ratings. The Cardiff team significantly improved on expectations - narrowly defeating a team which "should have" easily defeated them with a 100 pt margin - so it's unfortunate that this bout is not included.
Luckily, we have our own rating system - SRDRank - which draws from the full set of FTS bout records, ignoring WFTDA Sanctioning, to produce a rating which takes into account every single game played by a team, including B teams. We've not had time to update the full rating page for this, but just for EuroClash, we've run a special iteration of the rating just for the tournament, and added a column for it here. (Green rows are teams which have gone up in the expected "finishing order" for EuroClash, according to FTS, and Red rows are those which have dropped. We mark ranking changes in FTS and WFTDA with + and - signs in the Ranking row.)
FTS "WFTDA" Ratings 09 May 2018 (WFTDA Rating 30 April) | |||
Rank (Official WFTDA) | Name | Rating (Official WFTDA) | SRDRank (09 May) |
34 ++ (38 ++) | Dublin Roller Derby | 800.4 (443.76) | 3.50 |
48 ++ (66 -) | Dock City Rollers | 757.3 (311.87) | 3.16 |
62 + (71 -) | Middlesbrough Roller Derby | 729.4 (307.57) | 3.26 |
65 + (50 +++) | Birmingham Blitz Dames | 724.5 (373.88) | 3.06 |
67 ++ (64 -) | Newcastle Roller Girls | 717.7 (315.71) | 2.80 |
68 + (81 ++) | Central City Roller Derby | 713.3 (278.36) | 2.99 |
82 + (92 -) | Steel City Roller Derby | 692.5 (259) | 2.53 |
93 (90 -) | Tiger Bay Brawlers | 676.0 (262.62) | 3.11 |
94 (82 +) | Auld Reekie Roller Girls | 674.9 (277.65) | 2.97 |
We won't get either of those games at EuroClash 2018, though, as almost all of the scheduled bouts are against teams which are closely matched in one or other of the ratings. All of our rating schemes expect Dublin's games to be closely fought - Middlesbrough and Dock City are in 2nd to 4th place in all of the rating schemes we have here, and both have a chance at unseating the expected tournament top dogs from Ireland.
Auld Reekie have some difficult games - if you believe FTS, all of their games will be very difficult - but SRDRank has a lot more faith in them. Expect the Edinburgh based team to beat expectations against very tough opponents in Dock City and Birmingham, if we're right.
The ascendant Birmingham will be counting on the WFTDA rating being accurate when they take on Dock City - both other ratings place them slightly below, not above, the Swedish team - but everyone agrees that they should have an easier time against the Americans from Steel City.
Steel City will be wanting to bring upsets to both their games - again, going by their ratings from a little more than a year ago, they should win both of their bouts, against Birmingham and Central City... and their current rating has been steadily climbing in recent months. EuroClash could be the place where an American team does to Europe what European teams traditionally do in the Americas!
Day Tickets (and Weekend Tickets) for EuroClash are available here: https://www.euro-clash.com/tickets
EuroClash 2018 will be held at the Walker Activity Dome, 19th to 20th May 2018, by Newcastle Roller Girls.
Predictions of bouts are from FTS, if possible, and from our own SRD Rank where FTS cannot make predictions (for example: Latin America, or non-MRDA men’s bouts). (SRDRank also has recent WFTDA rankings, including the 31st June ranking, as well as SRDRank, and allows you to make predictions from them.)
If we’ve missed you from our roundup, please let us know! [Or add yourselves to FTS and/or Derbylisting]
(Note: we're especially likely to be missing items this week, as Facebook's response to the Cambridge Analytica scandal has resulted in them turning off large parts of the services we use to automatically collate events for this article. We don't think we've missed too much, but...)Predictions of bouts are from FTS, if possible, and from our own SRD Rank where FTS cannot make predictions (for example: Latin America, or non-MRDA men’s bouts). (SRDRank also has recent WFTDA rankings, including the 31st June ranking, as well as SRDRank, and allows you to make predictions from them.)
If we’ve missed you from our roundup, please let us know! [Or add yourselves to FTS and/or Derbylisting]
(Note: we're especially likely to be missing items this week, as Facebook's response to the Cambridge Analytica scandal has resulted in them turning off large parts of the services we use to automatically collate events for this article. We don't think we've missed too much, but...)Readers of the blog will remember our coverage of Newcastle Roller Girls' first European Tournament, EuroClash, back in 2017. Newcastle's first WFTDA Recognised Tournament brought together teams across Europe for some high level action, and prefigured performances as far ahead as WFTDA Playoffs; as well as presenting a sneak peak at two of the National teams (Scotland and Ireland) as they worked towards the 3rd Roller Derby World Cup.
Whilst the ridiculously tournament-filled start of this year has delayed us, we're also going to be bringing you as much coverage as we can of the return of EuroClash this year... although, given one of the attendees this time, the tournament has already outgrown its name.
In this initial article, we're just going to introduce you to the competitors, and their current placements in the rankings.
Whilst 2018's edition is slightly smaller than 2017's - 9 attendees (6 returning from last time), rather than 11 - their geographic distribution is substantially wider.
Returning from 2017's inaugural event are:
Newcastle Roller Girls (hosts) Auld Reekie Roller Girls (soon to rebrand to Auld Reekie Roller Derby) [Edinburgh] Central City Roller Derby (competed last year as Central City Rollergirls) [Birmingham] Dublin Roller Derby Middlesbrough Roller Derby (EuroClash2017 was their first fixture after rebranding) Tiger Bay Brawlers [Cardiff]
Joining them to make up the full nine are:
Birmingham Blitz Dames Dock City Roller Derby [Gothenburg] Steel City Roller Derby [Pittsburgh]!
Last year, EuroClash served as the first step for several of the attending teams' campaigns to get into WFTDA Playoffs - Auld Reekie, Bear City, Paris and Dublin all gaining valuable ranking points from their attendance, as all bouts are WFTDA Sanctioned games. Whilst EuroClash itself is not arranged to provide a final ranking, or a tournament cup, we did analyse the tournament itself here. Our analysis was good enough to predict the results of Paris Rollergirls' subsequent two games against other attendees, so it's probably as good as any other attempt at rating the teams...
Since last year, the returning teams have played a lot of Roller Derby, with varying stories; so we can expect some changes in the matchups this time around. [We're using the FTS "WFTDA" ratings here, as not all the teams can be rated with the usually-more-accurate Europe ratings.]
As of the time of writing, the attending EuroClash 2018 teams span a 41 position zone within FTS's rankings - but a fairly closely rated one. (FTS's built in predictor tool expects only a 2:1 score ratio between the highest rated - Dublin - and lowest rated - Auld Reekie - teams if they played today.) We've also included, in parenthesis, the WFTDA Official ratings and rankings for the teams - despite the different ordering, the "range" in strengths is about the same for WFTDA's own ratings, perhaps slightly larger.
FTS "WFTDA" Ratings 23 April 2018 (WFTDA Rating 31 March) | ||
Rank (Official WFTDA) | Name | Rating (Official WFTDA) |
53 (46) | Dublin Roller Derby | 745.2 (391.51) |
62 (65) | Dock City Rollers | 732.4 (318.9) |
63 (68) | Middlesbrough Roller Derby | 729.4 (307.57) |
70 (94) | Central City Roller Derby | 713.3 (242.58) |
83 (62) | Newcastle Roller Girls | 691.7 (323.67) |
86 (95) | Steel City Roller Derby | 683.0 (241.15) |
88 (88) | Birmingham Blitz Dames | 682.2 (259.63) |
93 (85) | Tiger Bay Brawlers | 676.0 (262.62) |
94 (87) | Auld Reekie Roller Girls | 674.9 (259.86) |
Hosts Newcastle have also had difficult bouts, against EuroClash 2017 returnees Central City Roller Derby - given CCR's stronger-than-previous performance against other recent opponents, we consider this to be more of a reflection on CCR than Newcastle - and Leeds Roller Derby (who, again, are simply improving themselves, as they knit together as a team after their first year). We suspect Newcastle are somewhat underranked due to their choice of opponents, and as the hosts they'll be wanting to show that at EuroClash.
Remaining steady, Tiger Bay Brawlers have still had a pretty good year - and even their recent loss to Central City is not a bad sign, as their performance was near identical to that at EuroClash 2017; if CCR show signs of being back on the up, then this is actually good for the Cardiff team too. The recent transfer of Kid Block back to TBB from London can only improve their strength further - we expect strong performances from the team, beyond what their current rating implies.
Dublin Roller Derby have also had a pretty good 2017, continuing their upward trend in the FTS European ratings, and remaining steady in the WFTDA rating. Their current placement at the top of EuroClash 2018's rankings seems solid, barring improvements from Dock City, or Middlesbrough. This could all change this weekend, however, as Dublin play some competitive sanctioned games over in the USA at Southern Discomfort 2018.
Also remaining steady for the past year, Steel City Roller Derby - after losing around 100 rating points in 2016, the team had a very stable 2017, sticking around the 680-690 rating they still reside at entering EuroClash. A return to their 2016 high would make them easily the strongest team in the tournament, but we suspect their middle-table ranking is more likely, especially given the effects of trans-Atlantic travel.
Gothenburg's second league, Dock City Rollers, continued their generally upwards climb over 2017 (and 2016), and show no particular signs of stopping this progress in WFTDA bouts. They're one of two teams which could challenge expected #1, Dublin if they play against them. Looking at the more plentiful data in the European FTS rankings, they've suffered a "correction" to their ranking as a result of their performance in last year's Swedish national tournament, but their trend is still upward - if we believe the European values, however, they'll be better matched against Auld Reekie than Dublin's finest.
Representing Birmingham, we have both Birmingham Blitz Dames and Central City Roller Derby, and both seeing upwards movement in the rankings over the past year - Central City in the past month or two, and BBD earlier in 2017 - although the more detailed European ratings show signs of a correction in the Blitz Dames rating at the start of this year, albeit again against the probably-underranked Leeds Roller Derby. We'll see if the Blitz Dames still have more rating gains to come in the WFTDA rating, as they play in the 2018 K Town Shakedown this weekend!
We'll be back with some more articles, and a guide to the schedule when its published, closer to the event...
EuroClash 2018 will be hosted at the Walker Activity Dome on the 19th and 20th May 2018 - less than a month away! Tickets are on sale, for £30 in advance (£35 on the door), or at a limited special group discount price of £100 for 4.
Anyone who has been part of Roller Derby for a moderate time will have noticed the increasing trend for rebrands amongst the older leagues. When the Roller Derby revival was in its initial phase, many of the first leagues named themselves "Roller Girls" - almost certainly resonating with the post-90s echoes of "girl power" (and the RiotGirl punk movement, which played into initial conceptions of how Roller Derby culture would work).
In a more modern era, as Roller Derby becomes ever more inclusive; both naturally (accepting more people means accepting more viewpoints), and intentionally (WFTDA's gender policy explicitly spelling out the inclusion of all kinds of women, as well as gender-expansive and non-binary people), that phrasing becomes increasingly uncomfortable for many leagues.
Auld Reekie Roller Girls were the second ever league to exist in Scotland, founded 10 years ago, back in 2008. After a long process of discussion, the league made the (near-unanimous) decision to move to the gender-neutral formulation in 2017... but were immediately hit by the disruption of their main venue for their entire existence, Meadowbank Stadium, preparing to close at the end of the year.
The new Auld Reekie Roller Derby rebrand is still moving ahead, in their symbolically significant decennial year; but, as with Central City Roller Derby [who were Rollergirls only a month ago], the rate at which a complete rebrand can happen is limited by realities of funding. Changing a name - and informing WFTDA and UKRDA that you're doing so - is fairly easy. Changing your logo, and extending that to your website, uniforms, banners, merchandise and so forth, is much harder, and costs significantly to complete. Without their main venue, and with no really equivalent alternatives available in the medium term, Auld Reekie's revenue streams are lower than they otherwise would have been, and so they've had to seek additional sources of funding.
This is one reason why Auld Reekie are applying for funding from "The People's Projects". This website is one of the ways in which the public can influence the distribution of National Lottery funds, in order to support locally deserving projects. Auld Reekie are asking for £21.7k - some of which will go towards the rebranding costs above. (This is actually the smallest requested amount of funding out of all the projects in their region.)
As importantly, however, the rest of the money will go towards improving accessibility and inclusion in Auld Reekie in other ways. As much as "Auld Reekie Roller Derby" is a statement of inclusion, acts are as important as words. Whilst Auld Reekie already work hard to provide an inclusive culture in terms of gender, there are other barriers in the sport that can be addressed. Anyone starting out in Roller Derby will know just how very expensive it is to acquire even the minimum set of kit, and these costs act as a different kind of exclusionary filter for the sport. So, the league also plan to spend funds on doubling their provision for loaner kits for potential new skaters, lowering the financial barriers to becoming involved in the sport.
Auld Reekie have already passed the shortlisting phase for People's Project funding for their region, and simply need enough votes relative to the 4 other shortlisted projects in order to achieve it.
Voting is open on The People's Project Funding for Auld Reekie's project until the 30th (next Monday). You can vote by simply following this link: https://www.thepeoplesprojects.org.uk/projects/view/rebrand-recruitment-and-celebration
[We hope to also bring you a follow-up article on the new Auld Reekie Roller Derby brand, later in the year!]
As is traditional (2014, 2016), we like to take a look at the Men's Roller Derby World Cup post-facto, and see how it has done in terms of fairly ranking teams. This time around, this is of particular interest because of the unusual approach to seeding "wild card" teams into brackets, on the basis of points-difference between groups.
To recap: teams were assigned to one of 6 groups (named by the colours of the rainbow - RED, ORANGE, YELLOW, GREEN, BLUE, PURPLE), with one "Top seed", and one "Second seed" in each group, the remainder of the places determined by lottery. The winners of each Group went through to the Top 8, leaving two spots free. The teams placing 2nd in each Group were compared by their points-difference (ignoring their worst game - usually against the Group winner), and the two highest also entered the Top 8. [The remaining 4 played for positions 9 through 12]. The top 4 of the teams placing 3rd-in-Group (by the same metric) played for positions 13 through 16. The bottom 2 of the 3rd-in-Groups played the top 2 of the 4th-in-Groups for 17th through 20th; the remaining teams 4th-in-Group played for 21st through 24th.
Obviously, this kind of involved "cross-group-rating" is very sensitive to the relative difficulty of the Groups - if one Group is a lot easier than the others, then their 2nd place team will have a relatively larger Points-difference due to their environment, rather than their relative skill; conversely for a Group which is harder than the others. Because we ignore results against the Top team, the most important thing to make a Group "hard" for the Top 8 wildcards is the relative strength of the weakest teams in the Groups - as they are where the other teams get more of their points difference.
As MRDWC used Points-difference, we'll be doing most of our inference also using Points-difference. We'll colour teams by the colour of the group they were assigned to in all of our charts, to make it easy to judge where each group "spanned" in terms of its components - the group winner we'll also italicise. We're also normalising the scores to 30 minutes by dividing the scores for full length games by 2 - so, if you compare two teams' estimated strengths, the difference will be about half the score difference you'd expect in a full length game between them.
Strength Estimates (by Linear Regression) after each Day's play, equal weighting for each game. | Final Tourney Order | ||
Days 1+2 | Days 1,2,3 | All Days | (official ordering) |
POL:-200 DEN:-130 NZ:-120 CHI:-108 GER:-99 PHI:-94 SWE:-93 ESP:-81 JPN:-76 COL:-75 NED:-35 IRE:-28 ITA:-17 FIN:10 WAL:37 MEX:54 BEL:58 CAN:69 ARG:97 SCO:113 ENG:138 FRA:151 AUS:173 USA:257 | POL:-174 DEN:-148 NZ:-143 JPN:-129 PHI:-109 NED:-96 COL:-86 GER:-70 CHI:-38 IRE:-36 ITA:-31 SWE:-15 ESP:-4 BEL:-3 WAL:6 FIN:7 ARG:68 SCO:94 CAN:94 MEX:96 FRA:137 AUS:162 ENG:196 USA:218 | POL:-174 DEN:-150 NZ:-143 JPN:-124 PHI:-112 COL:-97 NED:-88 GER:-69 ITA:-51 IRE:-48 CHI:-23 ESP:-5 WAL:2 SWE:4 BEL:10 FIN:14 ARG:72 SCO:77 MEX:95 CAN:96 FRA:140 AUS:152 ENG:195 USA:228 | POL PHI DEN COL NZ JPN ITA CHI NED GER IRE SWE ESP BEL FIN SCO WAL ARG MEX CAN FRA AUS ENG USA |
Range: 457 | Range: 392 | Range: 402 |
Weighting the short games less (proportionately to their relative error), we get the following expected final rating and ranking - in general, this is very similar to the unweighted version in ranking order, except where ratings were very close.
POL:-180 DEN:-146 NZ:-141 JPN:-126 PHI:-114 COL:-95 NED:-91 GER:-71 ITA:-53 IRE:-50 CHI:-19 ESP:-8 WAL:-3 BEL:10 SWE:12 FIN:21 ARG:71 SCO:73 CAN:95 MEX:97 FRA:141 AUS:154 ENG:189 USA:235
Comparing this rating to the final tournament rating, we do see some points of agreement - the lowest and highest rated teams are where they should be by performance, and, where teams did play each other, the ordering is generally the same. (A notable exception is Spain and Sweden, who swap positions in our ranking - something which is impossible in the tournament itself, due to Sweden losing by a single point to Spain. Draws, or near-draws, are difficult things for tournaments to deal with, and in this case, whilst Spain did beat the Swedish roster they faced; Sweden did also underestimate the Spanish team strategically, playing a stronger roster might have given them the predicted score difference here. We also place Mexico and Canada closer in rating (and opposite in ranking) to the final result, which is more of a problem - Canada defeated Mexico more strongly in the group stage than in their placement bout, and our de-emphasis of this allows Canada and Mexico's performance in their previous games to push the result the other way.)Another way in which there is general agreement between the tournament results (constrained as they are by the structure of the brackets themselves), and our inferred ratings, is in that they show the groups were not of comparable difficulty. Both the tournament and both of our ratings show Purple with two teams in the bottom 5 - the only group with two teams in that situation. As the 2nd place teams are compared by their points difference relative to the lower two teams in their groups, this implies that Wales had a measurable advantage compared to their peers in other groups - this is bourne out in both the inferred rating (which places Wales outside the Top 8), and in the final tournament ranking (which placed Wales at #8, their lowest possible place as a qualifier, after bruising losses to Canada and Argentina - the latter the largest point-differential in any of the placement games).
Rankings of teams, with CIRCLES added to represent average difficulty of group for 2nd Place teams (mean of 3rd and 4th Place team positions), and STARS to represent average difficulty of group for 4th Place teams (mean of 2nd and 3rd Place team positions).
By comparison, groups Yellow, Orange and Blue can all claim to have been more challenging than average, in terms of the relative strengths of the weakest two teams - and the other large movers in the top half of the table in comparison with the official results are indeed the second place teams in those groups. (Sweden, despite having a harder group, suffer still for their performance against Spain, so their final placement is perhaps still a slight underestimate.) Scotland, notably, is predicted in both ratings to have been close to Argentina - the #7 ranked tournament team - which is also backed by, again, their two performances against Australia, ending in rather similar scores.
Similar effects apply in the reverse direction for the lowest strength teams in each group: the group with the strongest 2nd and 3rd place teams penalises the weakest team relative to the other groups. In this case, this mostly affected Colombia, who had the bad luck to be in the group with Scotland; and Chile, who were in the tightest group for a 4th place team (although not the hardest), with equally-strong Sweden and Spain to face. (In general, Latin American teams other than Mexico and Argentina had pretty hard times of it, due to their relative newness on the "international" scene, compared to their actual ability - Roller Derby has been going a long time in all of Latin America, it's just expensive to get to North America or Europe from there!) Poland actually had the hardest group, but they would have been unable to qualify in the top 2 spots of the 4th Place teams even in an easier group.
In general, MRDWC 2018 did fairly well at rating teams overall, but we believe the 6 Groups into Top 8s system was too sensitive to inter-group difficulty balancing to work as well as the simpler group systems did in the previous two MRDWCs. Coupled with the geometrically increasing difficulty of making any tournament fair as the number of competitors increase, this means that at least some placements will be more likely to be off from the relative abilities of the teams. (Readers may disagree as to which teams those are, of course.) With the number of teams at future MRDWCs likely to grow - we know of at least four teams, and potentially as many as six, additional teams already which are aiming for a 2020 appearance - the next MRDWC will have to adopt a new system (and potentially add a third track) in order to scale fairly to meet the organisational challenge!